Bertha Not Threat But Dangerous Mystery

National Geographic News yesterday reported that Hurricane Bertha is so far from the coast that it is not a threat to the U.S. coastline, but a little disconcerting is news that the storm didn't behave as expected. By around 3 a.m. EDT Monday, Bertha had barely reached hurricane status with winds of about 75 miles (120 kilometers) an hour. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, predicted that the storm would not intensify much beyond that. But 12 hours later Bertha's strongest winds had ramped up to 115 miles (185 kilometers) an hour, making it a Category Three storm and the first major hurricane of the 2008 season. What happened to the storm during those 12 hours is a mystery. "We haven't come up with any explanations," said Richard Pasch, an NHC hurricane specialist. For the full story click here.

Bertha Now A Hurricane!

This just in from the National Hurricane Center:

...BERTHA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES...
1365 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT
ANY LAND AREAS.

Bertha Tracking North!

Bertha Not Aimed At NYC...Yet!

Her Name Is Bertha

THE STORM WATCH BEGINS

The National Hurricane Center has just issued an advisory at 5 a.m. this morning for Tropical Depression Two. While it's still far too early to consider this a threat to the Eastern Seaboard (left, see tracking map) it is something this blog will start monitoring. I've also added to the site a JULY 08 STORM UPDATE section featuring a live news feed from the National Hurricane Center. It's just below my home page welcome message. For more hurricane tips and news, click here.

More Extreme Weather Says Gov't Report

A new report released yesterday by the US Climate Change Science Program, which is overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, details North American climate changes and the news isn't good. As detailed in their press release: "Among the major findings reported in this assessment are that droughts, heavy downpours, excessive heat, and intense hurricanes are likely to become more commonplace..." To download the brochure summarizing their findings click here (pdf).

New York Third Most Vulnerable City In Nation

According to an article in the latest issue of HSToday, if a Category 3 Hurricane struck this region, "such a storm could surpass Hurricane Katrina as the largest natural disaster ever to hit the United States." The story details why our area is the third most vulnerable city in the country for such a disaster, after Miami and New Orleans, and quotes a variety of experts on the scenarios that might unfold. It also explores the preparations area residents should make in the not-so-unlikely event that this might really happen. I highly recommend reading this story, for the full article click here.

Do You Live In a Hurricane Evacuation Zone?

For a quick tool to determine if you live in a hurricane evacuation zone, courtesy of the NYC Office of Emergency Management, click here. You simply type in your address and submit. You can also check out a detailed map of the city, featuring the three levels of evacuation zones and evacuation center locations, by clicking here (pdf).

It's Hurricane Season

The latest hurricane forecast was released two days ago by Colorado State University's Dr. William Gray and you can read it here (pdf). Basically it says we can expect eight Atlantic basin hurricanes this season and seven tropical storms, with Florida being the most likely state to get hit. A separate interactive Landfall Probability Table gives our area a 6.9% chance of an intense hurricane making landfall this season. Some think we are overdue and under prepared for this possibility (click here for that story) as few now remember the 1938 hurricane nicknamed The Long Island Express.